This should be a fine year for the economy.  Sage in its typical fashion continues to take a cautious approach to forecasting.  Our model suggests that the U.S. economy will expand in the mid-two percent range this year, the global economy a bit more.  But the domestic economy could easily surprise to the upside. 

A cursory look at recent post-recession years may be instructive.  In 1983, the U.S. economy expanded 4.5 percent.  In 1992, the economy expanded at a 3.4 percent pace and in 2002 at a 1.8 percent pace.  Take the average of those figures and you get around 3.2 percent, which is better than our baseline forecast.  But look more closely at the numbers and you also see a disturbing trend.  Recoveries from recessions are becoming less dynamic, which means that the economy could underperform expectations, too.

Over the course of this year, this blog will chronicle the performance of the U.S. economy and point out a variety of influences.  It will also discuss key economic policy issues in the U.S. and in the nation’s Mid-Atlantic region, including in Sage’s home state, Maryland.

-AB

Category: Economic Commentary by Sage