As has been the case with a number of economic data releases in recent weeks, simple interpretation of today’s jobs report is not possible. While the number of jobs lost in May fell far short of the consensus estimate of negative 525,000, the unemployment rate rose above the consensus prediction of 9.2 percent (9.4%).
The latest employment report should hardly be viewed as good news. The adult male unemployment rate in the United States is now 9.8 percent, a reflection largely of the significant declines in employment opportunities in goods producing industries like manufacturing and construction. Anecdotal information indicates that an elevated proportion of recent college graduates are having difficulty securing employment, even if they are emerging from some of the nation’s more prestigious institutions. This phenomen helps explains the relatively sharp increase in unemployment last month. The implication is that the United States remains mired in a period characterized by flowed income growth and stressed industries. The hope is that the pace of employment loss continues to wane in June and during the months ahead
Perhaps looking at seasonally adjusted unemployment data would make more sense, since you correctly note that recent college grads and other cyclical factors impact the numbers of the non-SA data.
Definitely, the unemployment rate is going to remain very high, and
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