For weeks, the search for “green shoots” has become a preoccupation for the nation’s economists. So many green shoots had been identified in the form of improving home sales, durable goods orders, retail sales and initial jobless claims that many economists seem to have convinced themselves that economic recovery is imminent.
It is not. The latest retail sales numbers, indications of climbing foreclosures, and losses on Wall Street in recent days remind us all that we are still mired in the deepest recession in decades. Remarkably, many economists and the broader market took the BLS’ initial employment release for April (-539,000 jobs) as good news. But when one factors in downward revisions to prior months and the fact that the jobs numbers were artificially inflated by Census Bureau hiring, the April employment numbers were roughly as dire as releases characterizing previous months.
With the automotive supply chain now buckling, more job losses are ahead as we approach and enter the summer months. Though the economy is still set to improve later this year, that improvement will come only after further damage is done during the months immediately ahead.
-AB
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Total retail sales remain below their 2-year average. Sales of automobiles and building materials are particularly weak. Sales of Department Store Type Merchandise rose a strong 0.8% in January and post a 6% annualized gain in the last 3 months.
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Florida In for Upsetting Populace Trends Preceding 2010 Census
Interesting article you did! I’m sure you guys are interested in our community!
2009 was horrible year for work and in these tough moments our community helps to find sustainable work
Keep up the good work
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