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	<title>Sage Policy Group, Inc., Economic and Policy Consulting Firm in Baltimore, MD</title>
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	<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com</link>
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	<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 22:08:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Today&#8217;s Consumers are Buying Necessities and Lower-Priced Goods</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/todays-consumers-are-buying-necessities-and-lower-priced-goods.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/todays-consumers-are-buying-necessities-and-lower-priced-goods.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Aug 2011 19:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Consumer spending patterns have shifted significantly since the recession that began in late 2007 disrupted the trajectory of U.S. household finances.  According to Moody’s economy.com, households have regained only about half of the wealth they lost during the downturn and the recent market correction hasn’t helped.  Wages and salaries are at roughly the same level [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Consumer spending patterns have shifted significantly since the recession that began in late 2007 disrupted the trajectory of U.S. household finances.  According to Moody’s economy.com, households have regained only about half of the wealth they lost during the downturn and the recent market correction hasn’t helped.  Wages and salaries are at roughly the same level as three years ago, but that’s before one adjusts for inflation. </p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Correspondingly, consumers have shifted away from stores that primarily sell discretionary goods in favor of those supplying necessities and lower-priced items.  Vehicle sales have suffered the most profound decline in retail spending since 2007.  In 2007, consumers spent about 21 percent of their money at dealerships.  So far this year, dealers have captured only about 17 percent of spending.  Because gasoline prices have risen 27 percent since 2007, gas stations have experienced some of the largest share gains. </p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Consumers are also spending a greater share of their income on food and healthcare.  Jewelry sales have been among the economic casualties.  Though stabilizing more recently, jewelry sales volumes declined 23 percent over the course of 2008 and have yet to fully recover as a share of total spending. </p>
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		<title>50-50 Chance of Another Recession</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/50-50-chance-of-another-recession.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/50-50-chance-of-another-recession.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Aug 2011 14:18:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even before Standard and Poor&#8217;s decided to downgrade U.S. debt from triple A to double A-plus, the U.S. economy had been in rough shape.  Financial markets have been in correction, job growth has slowed over the past three months relative to earlier months, manufacturing activity has been slipping and more economists are forecasting another recession.  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Even before Standard and Poor&#8217;s decided to downgrade U.S. debt from triple A to double A-plus, the U.S. economy had been in rough shape.  Financial markets have been in correction, job growth has slowed over the past three months relative to earlier months, manufacturing activity has been slipping and more economists are forecasting another recession.  Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, one of the nation’s most prominent economists, believes the chance of another recession is about 50-50.  Some economists believe that the U.S. economy is already in recession, meaning that U.S. economic activity is presently shrinking and will continue to do so for several months to come.  If the U.S. economy is not in recession, it is very much on the razor’s edge.  What makes matters worse is that we have yet to recover from the prior recession, which is said to have begun in December 2007 and ended in June of 2009. </p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Although the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.8 percent annual rate from the fall of 2009 through the summer of 2010, it has averaged only about 1.6 percent growth since then.  Some economists calculate that the U.S. economy is presently more than 15 percent below full output, by far the worst number since the Great Depression.</p>
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		<title>State Budget Cuts Threaten College Affordability</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/state-budget-cuts-threaten-college-affordability.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/state-budget-cuts-threaten-college-affordability.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2011 17:40:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many states recently finalized their budgets for fiscal year 2012 and the cuts made to public college funding have already begun to impact students and their families.  According to Smart Money, since March, at least 19 states have slashed money for public colleges.  Certain states like Illinois and Georgia have also cut grants awarded to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many states recently finalized their budgets for fiscal year 2012 and the cuts made to public college funding have already begun to impact students and their families.  According to Smart Money, since March, at least 19 states have slashed money for public colleges.  Certain states like Illinois and Georgia have also cut grants awarded to students just a few months ago. </p>
<p>Even prior to the most recent state budgets, tuition and fees for public colleges and universities have been rising rapidly, though public schools are still far less expensive than private ones on average.  According to the College Board, tuition and fees for in-state students average $7,600 last academic year compared with $27,300 at private colleges.  But the affordability proposition is on the wane.  For instance, last month Texas and New Hampshire announced tuition hikes of 6 to 10 percent at certain public universities.  This month, California’s four-year colleges are seeking to increase tuition by up to 12 percent on top of an 8 to 10 percent increase announced earlier this year.  At the same time, financial aid packages are disappearing.  In June, New Hampshire, despite boasting one of the nation’s better economies, ended all state grants.</p>
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		<title>Government Supporting Restaurants?</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/government-supporting-restaurants.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/government-supporting-restaurants.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jul 2011 20:34:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=659</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Restaurants are often viewed as risky ventures, but over the past decade, more government guaranteed loans have gone toward full service restaurants than any other industry. In total, more than 34,000 government-guaranteed loans have gone to full service restaurants. The limited service restaurant industry, which includes drive-in, take-out and fast-food establishments, came in second with nearly 25,300 such loans. The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>Restaurants are often viewed as risky ventures, but over the past decade, more government guaranteed loans have gone toward full service restaurants than any other industry. In total, more than 34,000 government-guaranteed loans have gone to full service restaurants. The limited service restaurant industry, which includes drive-in, take-out and fast-food establishments, came in second with nearly 25,300 such loans. The dollar amounts are large. Loans to full service restaurants topped $8 billion, falling just short of the total that the hotel sector received over the past decade according to the National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, a lobbying organization that collects data on loans backed by the Small Business Administration. One might wonder why the government is willing to guarantee such large loans volumes to an industry known for its high rate of failure and high overhead. Approximately two-thirds of each dollar earned by the typical restaurant is allocated to food, beverages and labor according to the National Restaurant Association. According to the Wall Street Journal, one explanation is the sheer number of restaurants, which is the second largest private industry in the U.S. after health care.</div>
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		<title>Chicken or the Egg? Poverty and Violence Discussed</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/chicken-or-the-egg-poverty-and-violence-discussed.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/chicken-or-the-egg-poverty-and-violence-discussed.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jun 2011 18:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=652</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is often said that poverty breeds violence. After all, when people find that their basic needs are unmet, they may turn to stealing or worse to procure sufficient resources. But this year’s World Development Report concludes that the opposite is also true – violence breeds poverty. The authors of the report argue that while [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal"><span>It is often said that poverty breeds violence.<span> </span>After all, when people find that their basic needs are unmet, they may turn to stealing or worse to procure sufficient resources.<span> </span>But this year’s World Development Report concludes that the opposite is also true – violence breeds poverty.<span> </span>The authors of the report argue that while there are many causes of poverty, violence is becoming the primary one.<span> </span>Peaceful nations around the world are presently escaping poverty.<span> </span></span></p>
<p><span>Take the African nations of Burundi and Burkina Faso as examples.<span> </span>Up until 1990, these nations were characterized by similar rates of growth and income.<span> </span>But in late 1993, civil war erupted in Burundi after a presidential assassination.<span> </span>Roughly 300,000 people died over the next dozen years, most of them civilians.<span> </span>Peaceful Burkina Faso is now two and a half times richer than Burundi.<span> </span>People in nations that suffer habitual violence are more than twice as likely to be malnourished, three times as likely to miss primary school and almost twice as likely to die in infancy compared with others in developing countries.<span> </span>The implications of this World Bank analysis are far-ranging, including the idea that preventing violence should be given much higher priority than it is now.</span></p>
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		<title>New Data on Unemployment</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/new-data-on-unemployment.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/new-data-on-unemployment.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jun 2011 16:48:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=645</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unemployment rate data for Maryland and the other states arrived today. The data are not pretty, as least as they relate to Maryland. Though unemployment remains unchanged at 6.8% in May, employment growth dynamics have become quite negative recently with Maryland suffering the dubious distinction of losing more jobs in percentage terms according to the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span>Unemployment rate data for Maryland and the other states arrived today. The data are not pretty, as least as they relate to Maryland. Though unemployment remains unchanged at 6.8% in May, employment growth dynamics have become quite negative recently with Maryland suffering the dubious distinction of losing more jobs in percentage terms according to the house hold survey than any state in our union. According to the BLS, Maryland has lost 0.8% of its jobs over the past year. New Mexico was second worse at 0.7%. </span></p>
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		<title>The State of the U.S. Nonresidential Construction Industy, 2011:Q2 - All is not well</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/the-state-of-the-us-nonresidential-construction-industy-2011q2-all-is-not-well.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/the-state-of-the-us-nonresidential-construction-industy-2011q2-all-is-not-well.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 16:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=615</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The nation’s nonresidential construction industry, which typically represents approximately 5 percent of the nation’s economy, remains mired in recession. By 2009, the industry represented just 3.8 percent of the nation’s economic activity, the lowest proportion since 1993. Since reaching a peak of $719 billion on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis in October of 2008, nonresidential construction [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="line-height: 11.4pt;">The nation’s nonresidential construction industry, which typically represents approximately 5 percent of the nation’s economy, remains mired in recession. By 2009, the industry represented just 3.8 percent of the nation’s economic activity, the lowest proportion since 1993. Since reaching a peak of $719 billion on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis in October of 2008, nonresidential construction spending is down 27.2 percent as of February 2011 and is down 6.3 percent over the past 12 months even as the broader economy has begun to experience more meaningful recovery.</p>
<p style="line-height: 11.4pt;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt;">The industry has suffered a series of setbacks recently, including in the form of rapidly rising construction materials prices and the three-pronged tragedy in Japan. Construction materials prices leapt another 2 percent in March, the largest monthly increase since July 2008. Over the last six months, construction materials prices are up 5.9 percent despite the lack of recovery in the nation’s construction sector. Iron and steel prices have surged 15 percent over the past year.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 11.4pt;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt;">Among the factors driving materials prices higher is a sagging U.S. dollar, which fell roughly 8 percent over a recent nine-month period and the remarkable economic expansions now taking place in much of the emerging world. The rise in construction materials prices is hammering already thin industry profit margins and also translating into diminished nonresidential construction starts.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 11.4pt;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt;">One of the casualties of the three-pronged tragedy in Japan is the U.S. nonresidential construction sector, which has been counting upon the nation’s nuclear renaissance as a driver of future demand for engineers, facility designers and eventually contractors.</span></p>
<p>Though Federal Reserve data indicate that the availability of bank credit to commercial real estate may no longer be deteriorating, there is little evidence that credit availability has improved.  Commercial real estate loans were down nearly 9 percent nationally during the first quarter of 2011 compared to the prior quarter.  The lack of credit availability improvement coupled with stubbornly high vacancy rates have conspired to reduce privately-financed construction levels. Among the most negatively impacted segments are lodging, office and commercial construction, which are collectively down 58 percent from October 2008 levels.</p>
<p style="line-height: 11.4pt;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 9pt;">With federal stimulus package monies having been largely spent down, the industry is facing several more months of spending declines as privately-financed activities fail to replace expected declines in publicly-financed activities. Battered state and local government budgets are also negatively impacting the construction industry, with education- and safety-related spending down significantly over the past year (-13.3% and -19.3%, respectively).</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
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		<title>New Rock Star in New Jersey</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/new-rock-star-in-new-jersey.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/new-rock-star-in-new-jersey.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Jan 2011 19:31:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=549</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[New Jersey has produced more than its share of rock stars, including Bruce Springsteen and Frank Sinatra, who according to the Economist magazine was a rock star before there were rock stars. From an economic perspective, the latest New Jersey rock star is Governor Chris Christie, who is steadily helping to improve the Garden State’s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal"><span>New Jersey has produced more than its share of rock stars, including Bruce Springsteen and Frank Sinatra, who according to the Economist magazine was a rock star before there were rock stars.<span> </span>From an economic perspective, the latest New Jersey rock star is Governor Chris Christie, who is steadily helping to improve the Garden State’s economic prospects.<span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>In his first year as governor, he tackled a large budget deficit without raising taxes, though many of his cuts are deeply unpopular among certain stakeholders.<span> </span></span>Among other things, he cut nearly half a billion dollars in municipal funds, which could force some of the state’s 566 local governments to begin sharing services or simply reduce them.<span> </span>The Tax Foundation, a non-partisan think tank, ranks New Jersey 48<sup>th</sup> in the nation for its business climate.<span> </span>That sounds terrible, but before Mr. Christie came to Trenton, New Jersey ranked dead last.<span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The improving business climate is already paying dividends.<span> </span>Honeywell, a manufacturing and technology giant, had intended to leave the state, but decided last year to stay after the governor offered to increase tax credits. Coca-Cola is constructing a new factory that will create 650 jobs.<span> </span></p>
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		<title>What You Know Can Hurt You</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/what-you-know-can-hurt-you.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/what-you-know-can-hurt-you.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Oct 2010 14:17:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A new study by researchers at the University of California at Berkeley and Prince University indicates that we are probably better off not knowing what our colleagues earn. This is based upon a natural experiment that took place at the University of California. Faculty and staff there are on the state’s payroll. The passage of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span>A new study by researchers at the University of California at Berkeley and Prince University indicates that we are probably better off not knowing what our colleagues earn.<span> </span>This is based upon a natural experiment that took place at the University of California.<span> </span>Faculty and staff there are on the state’s payroll.<span> </span>The passage of a right-to-know law in California in March 2008 enabled the Sacramento Bee to publish the salaries of state workers on its website.<span> </span>Authors of the study contacted a random set of workers at three University of California campuses and told them about the website.<span> </span>Several days later, the researchers surveyed employees regarding how they used the newspaper’s site and asked them questions about job satisfaction.<span> </span>The researchers found that usage of the site spread quickly and that among workers whose pay was below the median for their department, job satisfaction collapsed and the likelihood of looking for a new job increased.<span> </span>But among those who were paid above the median, there was no meaningful change in attitude.<span> </span>Proving yet again that what you know can hurt you.<span> </span></span></p>
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		<title>Not the Bars You Might Prefer</title>
		<link>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/not-the-bars-you-might-prefer.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.sagepolicy.com/uncategorized/not-the-bars-you-might-prefer.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Oct 2010 17:10:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sage</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sagepolicy.com/?p=485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
There are many reasons to avoid prison, including the fact that by all accounts it appears to be a nasty experience.  One of the other reasons to avoid prison is that it is not consistent with good economic outcomes.  
According to a new report from the Pew Center on the States and Pew’s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.sagepolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/jail-bars-and-cuffs1.jpg"><img src="http://www.sagepolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/jail-bars-and-cuffs1-150x150.jpg" alt="jail-bars-and-cuffs1" title="jail-bars-and-cuffs1" width="150" height="150" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-486" /></a></p>
<p>There are many reasons to avoid prison, including the fact that by all accounts it appears to be a nasty experience.  One of the other reasons to avoid prison is that it is not consistent with good economic outcomes.  </p>
<p>According to a new report from the Pew Center on the States and Pew’s Economic Policy Group, incarceration reduces former inmates’ earnings by <em>40</em> percent when compared to demographically similar counterparts who have not been imprisoned.  The report estimates that upon release, former inmates typically work nine fewer weeks per year and that their annual earnings decline to <em>$23,000 from $39,000</em>.  </p>
<p>There are a number of potential factors behind these statistics, including career interruption and the stigmatizing effects that a criminal record can have upon a job applicant.  Among other findings in the report was that the U.S. houses more inmates than the top 35 European nations combined and that incarceration rates have risen sharply since 1980, particularly for young African-American men.  Today, more than one in three young African-American men without a high school diploma is behind bars.  </p>
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